The road ahead for the economy and housing — fall 2022 update

The Canadian economy will enter a modest recession by the end of 2022 and start recovering in the second half of 2023.  The national house price is expected to decline by close to 15% by Q2 2023 from its historical peak in Q1 2022 as housing demand slows with rising interest rates and deteriorating economic and income conditions.

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New GTA Listings Down While the Average Selling Price Levels off in October

Despite the continued housing market transition to a higher borrowing cost environment, the average selling price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) found some support near $1.1 million since the late summer. GTA home sales continued to adjust to substantially higher interest rates in October 2022, both on an annual and monthly basis. However, new listings are also down year-over-year and month-over-month. The persistent lack of inventory helps explain why the downward trend in home prices experienced in the spring has flattened over the past three months.

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Strong Rental Demand and Lack of Supply Driving up Rents

Double-digit year-over-year rent increases continued to be the norm in Q3 2022. With many would-be first-time buyers temporarily on the sidelines in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) due to higher borrowing costs, rental demand has remained strong in the face of falling supply. Competition for condo rentals has intensified as a result, and negotiated rents have increased dramatically.

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GTA Condo Sales and Listings Down

Following the ownership market as a whole, Q3 2022 condominium apartment sales were off by approximately 46 per cent compared to Q3 2021. Despite there being substantially more balance in the market in the third quarter relative to a year earlier, the average selling price was up year-over-year, albeit by less than the current pace of inflation.

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TRREB Residential Market Stats - Quick Overview

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